Trump’s Capitol insurgency on January 6, 2021, has some things in common with Pickett’s Charge at Gettysburg on July 3, 1863. Both failed.
Germany, January 13, 2021
It was July 1863. The American Civil War, launched by the Confederacy at Fort Sumter, South Carolina, had been going on for over two years. While the Union’s General Grant was attacking Vicksburg, Mississippi, in the west, Confederate General Robert E. Lee had been marching his Army of Northern Virginia toward Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, in his second invasion of the North. His goal was to seize Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s capital, then move on to Philadelphia or Washington D.C., in the hopes of destroying the Union Army of the Potomac and forcing the North to accept peace on the South’s terms.
When word came that Lee had marched his army through the Shenandoah Valley into Maryland and Pennsylvania, the Union’s Army of the Potomac marched north to meet it. Elements of the two armies met near Gettysburg on July 1. After hard-fought battles, Union forces abandoned the town and established defensive positions on Cemetary Ridge, just to the south. The second day of battle was bloody but inconclusive, with Lee’s army trying in vain to take the Union flanks and roll them up. On the third day, July 3, General Lee decided to make one more massive attempt to destroy the Union forces by attacking their center, which he assumed was now weaker.
At 1:00 p.m. Confederate General Longstreet launched a massive artillery assault on Union positions on Cemetary Ridge. At 3:00 p.m. his troops, including Major General Pickett’s division, began to march across open territory for about a mile toward the Union lines. This assault is now called “Pickett’s Charge”. They were met with massive artillery fire and Union musket fire. Some of the troops reached the Union lines and broke through at the “Angle”, but a Union counterattack repulsed them. The furthest Confederate advance is called the “High-water mark of the Confederacy”. Longstreet’s forces failed to achieve their objectives, and when they returned to their lines, about two-thirds of the 12,500 soldiers were missing. Lee withdrew to higher ground on July 4, Independence Day, and then marched the survivors back south to Virginia. To the west, Vicksburg surrendered on July 4, giving General Grant control of the Mississippi River and splitting the Confederacy.
The war would continue for almost two more bloody years, ending when General Lee surrendered at Appamatox Courthouse on April 9, 1865.
It is now January 2021. Two months ago, Democratic candidate Joe Biden defeated Republican President Donald Trump by a large margin: 306 electoral votes to 232. The popular vote, which doesn’t determine the winner, was also lopsided: Biden received 7 million more votes nationwide than Trump. Unwilling to accept defeat, Trump claimed the election was stolen through widespread voter fraud. His only evidence was some affidavits from supporters, who complained about apparent irregularities. His campaign filed 60 lawsuits: it won only one, a judgement to let poll watchers get closer to poll workers counting ballots. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected out of hand the two suits it received. But Trump persisted, repeating his false claims of fraud. And many of his followers believed him.
The electors cast their votes in the states on December 14, with the results as expected: 306 for Biden, 232 for Trump. The only remaining step in the process was scheduled for January 6, when both houses of Congress would meet to certify the results. This was normally a formality, although Representatives and Senators could object to results from individual states. Trump saw this as his last chance and, through Twitter, called on supporters to come to Washington D.C. on that day: “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!”
Heeding the call, thousands of Trump supporters gathered in Washington on January 6. Trump gave a speech at the Ellipse in the National Mall, in which he repeated his claim that the election was stolen. He called on supporters to march to the Capitol, which many of them did. The first clashes between police and Trump supporters started at about 1:00 p.m. The police were prepared for a peaceful demonstration but not a violent assault. They gave way. At about 2:00 p.m., Trump supporters broke into the Capitol building itself. Police whisked Senators and Representatives from their chambers and offices to safe places in or near the Capitol, while the mob roamed through the building, vandalizing offices, stealing and smashing objects, smearing excrement and urinating. Five people died, including two police officers. Reinforcements from the D.C. Metropolitan police, federal law enforcement agencies, and National Guard troops finally arrived and pushed the intruders out of the building and off the Capitol grounds.
With Pickett’s Charge, General Lee failed to dislodge Union forces and suffered heavy casualties, which forced him to retreat. The insurrection at the Capitol disrupted the vote to certify the results, but it continued after the mob retreated, and Joe Biden was certified the winner. Donald Trump finally admitted that there would be a transition to a new administration on January 20. He has now been impached by the House and will be tried by the Senate, although the date for that is uncertain.
Trump’s attempts to overturn the election, accurately called an insurrection, peaked in the storming of the Capitol. This was its high-water mark. The consequences of the storming of the Capitol will become clearer as time goes on, but one thing is already apparent: Like Pickett’s Charge, it was a strategic defeat for Trump and his supporters.
Lee’s army, though defeated, remained dangerous and fought on for almost two years, even threatening Washington D.C. in 1864. Trump’s ragtag mob, including QAnon conspiracy theorists, white supremacists, Christian nationalists, and others, also remains dangerous. New riots are planned for January 17 and again on January 20, Inauguration Day.
The analogy between Pickett’s Charge and the storming of the Capitol is striking in many ways, but it’s not perfect. The Confederate soldiers fought for white supremacy, as do many of Trump’s followers. But when the Confederates attacked, they did it as disciplined soldiers who knew they would pay an awful price. Trump’s mob was anything but disciplined, and its members believed they wouldn’t have to pay a high price. Let’s see if they’re right.